Enrollment Projections

MONITORING ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS

Arlington Public Schools monitors student enrollment and assesses the need for capacity in our schools on an ongoing basis. Several APS reports are produced annually to provide an estimate of student enrollment and insight into capacity needs for the future. The process of projecting student enrollment is fluid and dynamic, reflecting changes in County birth rates, housing development, migration, and other criteria that factor into the projections process. The enrollment and projection reports are used for planning purposes to ensure sufficient capacity, budget, staffing, and other resources to meet student needs.

 

Reporting Timeline

APS produces reports throughout the year to monitor our evolving enrollment and capacity needs; the table below lists these reports and provides a timeline.

Planning Tools for Student Enrollment, Projection and Capacity

Report Name Report Content Primary Uses  Most Recent
Fall Ten-Year Enrollment Projections
  • Annual total school projections
  • Reflects projected enrollment only
  • Does not include information on existing or planned capacity
  • Used to prepare the Superintendent’s recommended budget for the upcoming school year, including staffing for schools

Fall Ten-Year Enrollment Projections Report (January 2019 for 2019-2028)

FAQs

Superintendent’s Annual Update The details in this report are framed around the following tools that APS uses to address near-term capacity changes:

  • Adding relocatable classrooms
  • Offering transfers to neighborhood schools that have space for additional students
  • Increasing or decreasing the number of students or classes accepted via the lottery at each of the option schools/programs
  • Moving programs
  • Changing how classrooms are used (i.e., converting computer labs to classrooms)
  • Intended to be a one-stop resource that communicates what is in place currently to address enrollment growth, and the plans for continuous improvements to the process for addressing near-term capacity needs
Superintendent’s 2019 Annual Update
Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP)
  • Offers an overview of projected enrollment by school level
  • Compares current and planned capacity with enrollment projections
  • The March 2018 AFSAP included the Annual Update
  • Provides a comprehensive look at student enrollment and building capacity
  • Used to inform the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)
Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (March 2018)
September Enrollment Report
  • Actual School Enrollment numbers on the last day of September each year
  • Serves as a snapshot of the number of students currently enrolled in each school
  • Student record collection for reporting to the Virginia Dept. of Education
September Enrollment Report (Fall 2018)
Spring 1-Year Projection Update
  • Uses January enrollment data to update projections for following year
  • Reflects projected enrollment only
  • Does not include information on existing or planned capacity
  • Used for updating the budget for the next fiscal year
  • Helps allocate staffing and resources for upcoming school year

Spring 1-Year Projections Update for the 2019-20 School Year will be updated April 2019.

Spring 1-Year Projections Update (Spring 2018 for Fall 2018-19)

10-Year Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)
  • Addresses future facility needs, including new facilities, additions and renewals of existing schools
  • Used to plan for major and minor construction needs, and major repairs of facilities
  • Serves as financial planning and project planning document for a 10-year period
10-Year Capital Improvement Plan

ANALYZING ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS

Fall Ten-Year Enrollment Projections Report (January 2019 for 2019-2028)

This report was published in January 2019. The Annual Enrollment Projections Report:

  • includes the Fall 10-Year Projection Tables;
  • explains data collection and related assumptions used to produce the projections, and provides a detailed methodology which was updated since the Fall 2017 projections to incorporate assumptions provided by Arlington County government, including, birth rates, committed affordable housing, and the timing of residential construction; and
  • includes alternative projections scenarios developed together by APS and Arlington County staff in fall 2018 that show a range for projecting APS enrollment from low to medium to high enrollment possibilities.

Superintendent’s Annual Update (2019)

The Superintendent’s 2019 Annual Update:

  • focuses on addressing near-term capacity needs
  • provides a one-stop resource that communicates what is in place currently to address enrollment growth
  • plans for continuous improvements to the process for addressing near-term capacity needs

Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP), March 2018

This report was published in March 2018.  The AFSAP:

  • offers an overview of projected enrollment by school level
  • compares current and planned capacity with enrollment projections
  • used to inform the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)

Fall Ten-Year Enrollment Projections Tables (2019-2028), see page 20

This report was published January 2019 for the 2019-2028 school years. The Fall 10-Year Projection Tables:

  • use data from the September Enrollment Report;
  • provide one table for each of the next 10 school years that shows annual projected enrollment by grade within existing schools; and
  • reflect, unless otherwise noted:
    • existing school facilities in the September Enrollment Report, and
    • boundary and other policy changes completed during the previous school year
  • among the other data used in the enrollment projections are Student Generation Rates (see page 35 of report), which are calculated yearly

September Enrollment Report

This report was most recently published in Fall 2018. Every month, APS produces an enrollment report that provides a snapshot of the official headcount of students on the last day of that month throughout the school year. The September Enrollment Report:

  • provides the official count of students enrolled in APS as of the last school day in September; and
  • is the main data source for enrollment projections.

Spring 1-Year Projection Update (Spring 2018 for 2018-19)

Spring 1-Year Projections Update for the 2019-20 School Year will be updated March 2019.

This report was most recently published April 2018, for the 2018-19 school year. The Spring 1-Year Projection Update:

MANAGING ENROLLMENT GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS

Several tools help APS meet the short- and long-term needs of enrollment growth. These include:

Note: Capital Improvement Projects that are under construction or are in the planning process to add seats at all school levels in the next decade are not reflected in the enrollment projections.  Those reports reflect only enrollment and capacity use of existing facilities.

Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) Development Cycle Timeline

 

Archived Reports