MONITORING ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS
Arlington Public Schools monitors student enrollment and assesses the need for capacity in our schools on an ongoing basis. Several APS reports are produced annually to provide an estimate of student enrollment and insight into capacity needs for the future. The process of projecting student enrollment is fluid and dynamic, reflecting changes in County birth rates, housing development, migration, and other criteria that factor into the projections process. The enrollment and projection reports are used for planning purposes to ensure sufficient capacity, budget, staffing, and other resources to meet student needs.
APS produces reports throughout the year to monitor our evolving enrollment and capacity needs; the table below lists these reports and provides a timeline.
Planning Tools for Student Enrollment, Projection and Capacity
|Report Name||Report Content||Primary Uses||Most Recent|
|Fall Ten-Year Enrollment Projections||
||Fall Ten-Year Enrollment Projections (Fall 2017 for 2018-2027)|
|Capacity Utilization Report||
||Please see page 19 of the Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (March 2018)|
|Sept Enrollment Report||
||September Enrollment Report (Fall 2017)|
|Spring 1-Year Projection Update||
||Spring 1-Year Projections Update (Spring 2018 for Fall 2018-19)|
|10-Year Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)||
||10-Year Capital Improvement Plan|
ANALYZING ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS
This report was most recently published in January 2017 (the 2018 report will be released later this winter). The Annual Enrollment Projections Report:
- includes the Fall 10-Year Projection Tables;
- explains data collection and related assumptions used to produce the projections, and provides a detailed methodology which was updated since the Fall 2017 projections to incorporate assumptions provided by Arlington County government, including, birth rates, committed affordable housing, and the timing of residential construction; and
- includes alternative projections scenarios developed together by APS and Arlington County staff in fall 2017 that show a range for projecting APS enrollment from low to medium to high enrollment possibilities.
This report was most recently published in January 2017 (the 2018 report will be available later this winter). The Capacity Utilization Report:
- shows how APS is addressing enrollment growth by comparing school-level projections with capacity over the next 10 years;
- compares the annual total school projections from the Fall 10-Year Projection Tables with:
- capacity for students (in classrooms and common areas) at existing facilities, and
- additional capacity through new facilities, additions and other modifications to existing facilities as funded in the most recent Capital Improvement Plan (CIP); and
- reflects boundary and other policy changes approved during the previous school year and as they apply, unless otherwise noted. (Additional capacity is shown in the school year when the new seats become available for use.)
This report was most recently published December 21, 2017 for the 2018-2027 school years. The Fall 10-Year Projection Tables:
- use data from the September Enrollment Report;
- provide one table for each of the next 10 school years that shows annual projected enrollment by grade within existing schools; and
- reflect, unless otherwise noted:
- existing school facilities in the September Enrollment Report, and
- boundary and other policy changes completed during the previous school year
- among the other data used in the enrollment projections are Student Generation Rates (2017-18), which are calculated yearly
This report was most recently published in Fall 2017. Every month, APS produces an enrollment report that provides a snapshot of the official headcount of students on the last day of that month throughout the school year. The September Enrollment Report:
- provides the official count of students enrolled in APS as of the last school day in September; and
- is the main data source for enrollment projections.
This report was most recently published April 1, 2017, for the 2017-18 school year. The Spring 1-Year Projection Update:
- uses the January enrollment report to update the projections for the next school year;
- is used to prepare the budget for the next fiscal year; and
- helps APS more accurately allocate staffing and other resources for the next fiscal year’s budget.
MANAGING ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS
Several tools help APS meet the short- and long-term needs of enrollment growth. These include:
- Short-term capacity adjustments (Relocatable classrooms)
- Program Moves
- Boundary Changes
- 10-Year Capital Improvement Plan (updated every two years)
Note: Capital Improvement Projects that are under construction or are in the planning process to add seats at all school levels in the next decade are not reflected in the enrollment projections. Those reports reflect only enrollment and capacity use of existing facilities.
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON PROJECTIONS
- For the 2019-28 CIP process, Arlington County Government requested a detailed list of the assumptions made by APS in their demographic projections for student growth. A response from June 18, 2018 is included here.