Enrollment Projections and Capacity Utilization

How many students are projected to enroll in the future?

Validation of Enrollment Projection Methodology

Arlington Public Schools enrollment projections and methodology have been reviewed by an independent third party.  Provided below are reports issued by the consultant(s).

  • 2017 Enrollment Projections Process Review (Report) (PowerPoint)
  • 2016 Community Facilities Study — Methodology Process Improvements: Phase 2 (Report)
  • 2015 Community Facilities Study — Review of Projection Methodology: Phase 1 (Report)

Accuracy of Enrollment Projections

Individual school projections (+/- 5 percent error rate) are more subject to variation than the overall school system projections (+/- 2 percent error rate).   The “Review of Projection Methodologies for the Arlington County Government and Arlington Public Schools” suggests that for a fast-growing district such as APS, with many variables that contribute to changing enrollment, +/- 2 percent error rate is acceptable for system-wide projections.