Projections – FAQ

Q –  Claremont’s numbers continue to increase, despite the new admissions policy put in place that would presumably result in a reduction of entering K students once grandfathering is no longer in place.

A –  With the opening of new seats, plans to provide relief to option schools included reducing the number of K classes from six to four at Claremont and Key in 2019-20. Reviews with elementary school principals of PreK program moves, building capacity and 2019-20 enrollment estimates led to a recommendation to maintain six K classes at both schools. This recommendation to maintain six K classes was shaped by conversations in the immersion community. APS is committed to immersion and seeks to ensure there are sufficient students to progress through Grade 5 and grow the program, as well as potentially identify a third immersion site in the future, per a statement in the Superintendent’s Proposed Budget.APS has been upgrading the projections process, which are documented here: apsva.us/statistics/enrollment-projections/

  • The same number of option school entry classes/seats are assumed in the ten-year projections as exist in the current school year.
  • The Superintendent’s Annual Update details the PreK program moves and the number of option school entry classes/seats, which were informed by a review with principals and central administrators in December.
  • The community can learn about adjustments to projections via APS communications provided, for example, at Kindergarten Information Night and in the Spring update to projections for the next school year (published in April).

Q –  Abingdon’s projected enrollments are significantly lower than the numbers used during the fall boundary process even when taking into account the estimated 27 students that will leave the school next year and attend Drew as a result of the new boundaries.Can someone explain the dramatic differential in projections?

A – The difference in projections can be explained by:

  • The enrollment data used in each projection comes from different years, which resulted in different numbers of incoming K students estimated to attend their neighborhood schools.  Projections are based on the most current enrollment data available at the time.
    • Fall 2018 Boundary Process Projections: This boundary process began in Summer 2018 and based projections on Sept. 30, 2017 enrollment data (the most current available)
    • Ten-year Enrollment Projections: These projections were published in January 2019 and based projections on Sept. 30, 2018 enrollment data (the most current available)
  • APS took into account that the K students in September 2019 were the first to be admitted under the revised Options & Transfer policy, which affected incoming projections as well as estimates for how students transition to the next grade level.
    • Fall 2018 Boundary Process Projections: With no student enrollment data available under the new policy, a conservative formula was used to calculate neighborhood seats and ensure the boundary process would not overcrowd a school.
    • Ten-year Enrollment Projections: Student enrollment information was available on the first K cohort entering school under the adjusted policy and this was used for the January 2019 ten-year enrollment projections.

Q – Will there be another projection revision prior to the 2020 boundary process?

A – Yes, Planning &Evaluation updates the projections annually and expects additional improvements in the process each year: apsva.us/statistics/enrollment-projections/. The 2020 Boundary Process will again use Planning Unit (PU)-based enrollment projection estimates. Data will reflect actual enrollment patterns under the revised Option & Transfer policy, replacing estimates used in 2018.

Q – For the 2019-28 CIP process, can you provide a list of assumptions used in the demographic projections for student growth? 

A –  The response from June 18, 2018 is included here.